{"source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-electric-cars-still-dont-live-up-to-the-hype/2019/12/30/242ce200-2b29-11ea-bcd4-24597950008f_story.html", "title": "Why electric cars still don\u2019t live up to the hype", "top_image": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/0dHTizBjtj3vrJ0KpJL23WI6on4=/1440x0/smart/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/5K7VFQBLLUI6VPFTVRSIFRFJF4.jpg", "meta_img": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/0dHTizBjtj3vrJ0KpJL23WI6on4=/1440x0/smart/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/5K7VFQBLLUI6VPFTVRSIFRFJF4.jpg", "images": ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/56TEHSRLLUI6VPFTVRSIFRFJF4.jpg&w=150", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://s3.amazonaws.com/arc-authors/washpost/7231b879-a527-4ab6-a494-6c3c55122fb4.png&w=90&h=90", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/0dHTizBjtj3vrJ0KpJL23WI6on4=/1440x0/smart/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/5K7VFQBLLUI6VPFTVRSIFRFJF4.jpg"], "movies": [], "text": "More than a few people (my Tesla-owner friends very much included) have questioned this fixation, and I freely admit it\u2019s an odd one.\n\nAD\n\nOn the whole, je ne regrette rien. Proponents do make a plausible assumption: Because gas-powered cars account for between one-sixth and one-fifth of U.S. carbon emissions, electrifying them could make a big difference.\n\nAD\n\nMass adoption of electric cars, however, cannot occur unless they can do everything gas-powered vehicles can do \u2014 including the ability to go hundreds of miles before refueling, and refueling easily \u2014 at a comparable total cost of ownership. Otherwise, electric cars will be a niche product for upper-income folks. And government subsidies for them will be a regressive transfer of social resources in return for little climate benefit, given that the U.S. power grid the cars draw from is 64 percent fueled by coal and gas.\n\nNothing happened in the past decade to undermine this basic critique. Government, both federal and state, subsidized electric-car sales and production to the tune of several billion dollars, yet as of March 2019, there were 1.18 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States \u2014 less than one-half of 1 percent of the total. Households earning $100,000 or more per year own two-thirds of EVs, with many of the owners benefiting from a $7,500 federal tax credit.\n\nAD\n\nGlobally, electric-car adoption is also modest relative to optimistic forecasts. Of the 86 million cars sold in the top 54 world markets in 2018, 1.26 million, or 1.5 percent, were EVs. That\u2019s nowhere near then-Nissan chief executive Carlos Ghosn\u2019s 2010 prognostication that EVs would account for 10 percent of global sales by 2020.\n\nAD\n\nMy biggest error, in hindsight, was to underestimate the financial staying power of Elon Musk\u2019s cash-burning Tesla Motors, which I thought would exhaust investors\u2019 patience long before it conquered the complexities of mass-producing quality vehicles. Tesla\u2019s Model 3 is the most popular electric car on the market, with 111,000 sold in the first nine months of 2019. Owners swear by it.\n\nTesla\u2019s survival, though, may be the exception that proves the rule. (And we\u2019ll see how it does now that Congress has allowed that tax credit to lapse.) Ballyhooed start-ups such as Coda, TH!NK and Fisker all went bankrupt before 2015 \u2014 Fisker after defaulting on an Energy Department loan at an ultimate cost to taxpayers of $139 million.\n\nAD\n\nChevrolet discontinued its Volt, a plug-in hybrid, in 2019 after selling only about 150,000 since the car launched in 2011. That same year, the Obama administration had projected that General Motors would sell as many as 500,000 Volts by 2015.\n\nAD\n\nBut wait. What about recent reports that Volkswagen is making big new investments in electrics? Or Ford\u2019s announcement of a new all-electric Mustang crossover? GM, Chevy\u2019s parent company, says it, too, is preparing a new generation of EVs.\n\nEstablished automakers are indeed about to ramp up electric offerings, providing Tesla with its most serious competition yet.\n\nThey are doing so, however, more as a response to regulatory pressure from governments \u2014 even after the Trump administration scaled back fuel-economy standards \u2014 than as a response to demonstrated customer demand, which lately has favored gas-powered SUVs and pickups.\n\nAD\n\nThe problem, as industry leaders acknowledge in their quieter moments, is still the same: getting the total cost of owning an EV down to that of a gas equivalent. There\u2019s uncertainty about key variables such as how much more battery costs will fall and the global supply of rare-earth elements.\n\nAD\n\nGM President Mark Reuss recently wrote that EV-gas cost parity may happen \u201cwithin a decade.\u201d Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo told Automotive News Europe: \u201cI do not believe there will be a dramatic increase in demand for battery vehicles, and I believe this situation is true globally.\u201d\n\nA mid-2018 report by JPMorgan Asset Management noted that the median global forecast by industry experts is 125 million EVs on the road worldwide by 2030, which would be less than 10 percent of the total. \u201cI\u2019m taking the \u2018under\u2019 rather than the \u2018over,\u2019 \u201d the report\u2019s author, Michael Cembalest, added.\n\nAD\n\nMe too. Let\u2019s reconvene in 10 years to see who wins that wager, and to assess the true costs and benefits of the bet that big government and big business have placed on the electric car.\n\nRead more:\n\nAD", "keywords": [], "meta_keywords": [""], "tags": [], "authors": ["Charles Lane", "Editorial Writer", "Columnist Specializing In Economic", "Fiscal Policy", "Opinion Writer"], "publish_date": "Mon Dec 30 00:00:00 2019", "summary": "", "article_html": "", "meta_description": "They cost too much and their climate benefit has been exaggerated.", "meta_lang": "en", "meta_favicon": "/pf/resources/images/favicon.ico?d=173", "meta_data": {"description": "They cost too much and their climate benefit has been exaggerated.", "og": {"site_name": "Washington Post", "type": "article", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-electric-cars-still-dont-live-up-to-the-hype/2019/12/30/242ce200-2b29-11ea-bcd4-24597950008f_story.html", "image": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/0dHTizBjtj3vrJ0KpJL23WI6on4=/1440x0/smart/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/5K7VFQBLLUI6VPFTVRSIFRFJF4.jpg", "title": "Opinion | Why electric cars still don\u2019t live up to the hype", "description": "They cost too much and their climate benefit has been exaggerated."}, "twitter": {"site": "@WashingtonPost", "card": "summary_large_image", "title": "Opinion | Why electric cars still don\u2019t live up to the hype", "description": "They cost too much and their climate benefit has been exaggerated."}, "article": {"content_tier": "metered", "opinion": "true"}, "viewport": "width=device-width, initial-scale=1"}, "canonical_link": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-electric-cars-still-dont-live-up-to-the-hype/2019/12/30/242ce200-2b29-11ea-bcd4-24597950008f_story.html"}